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香港脑血管病死亡率时间趋势研究 |
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余德新 谢立亚 黄子惠 黄小兰 陈维清
【摘要】 目的 描述香港1976～1995年脑血管病(CVA)死亡率时间趋势变化，分析香港CVA死亡率的时间趋势是否与世界上经济较发达地区一致。方法 用1961年世界标准人口对死亡率进行直接标化，以非线性回归法计算每年CVA死亡率变化百分数，按5岁分组进行出生队列分析， 比较不同年代出生的人群在相同年龄阶段CVA死亡情况。 男女CVA死亡率比的时间变化趋势用简单直线回归模型进行拟合。结果 近20年来香港CVA死亡率呈下降趋势，与1976年相比1995年CVA死亡率男女性分别下降50.96%及37.85%。 虽然整体CVA死亡率趋势后10年较前10年下降幅度更大，然而男性35～44岁年龄组CVA死亡率在后10年却平均每年上升1.34%。男女性CVA死亡率比每年平均减少0.01，并稳定下跌，如果该趋势稳定，则到2013年女性CVA死亡率将赶上男性。出生队列的研究发现，同一年龄组后出生者CVA死亡率较低(除1955后出生的队列)。病人入院资料显示，增加及改良CVA的治疗，可部分解释CVA死亡率的下降。结论 香港CVA死亡率与世界大多数经济较发达地区有相似的时间趋势。
【关键词】 脑血管意外 死亡率 时间因素
Time Trend of Mortality Rates of Cerebrovascular Diseases in Hong Kong
YU Taksun, XSE Lapah, WONG Tzewai, et al.
Department of Community and Family Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
【Abstract】 Objective To describe the time trend of mortality rates of cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Hong Kong for the period of 1976 to 1995, and to compare them with those in the more developed countries around the world. Methods Mortality rates of CVD were standardized directly using world standard population in 1961. Annual percent changes of mortality rates of CVD were estimated with a non-linear regression. Birth-cohort analysis was carried out at an interval of five-year of age to compare their age-specific mortality rates of CVD in different birth cohorts. Time trend of cause-specific mortality rates of CVD both in males and females was fitted with a simple linear regression model. Results Considerable downward trend of CVD mortality was observed during the past twenty years. Mortality rates among men and women decreased by 50.96% and 37.85% in 1995, as compared to those in 1976, respectively. Although in general, a greater trend in CVD mortality was observed during the last 10 years, as compared with that in the previous 10 years, an annual increase in CVD mortality of 1.34% was found among males aged 35 to 44 years during the latter 10 years. [1] [2] [3] 下一页
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