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燃煤型地氟病非骨相早期判别模型探讨 |
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李安明1 严本武2 谭晓东1 王福元1 李明健2 杜祖祥4
唐圣智2 罗琼1阎俊1 刘光明4 胡瑞华3 曹淑彬3
秦先钊4 李杰4 瞿德成4
【摘要】 目的 早期发现、诊断及治疗地氟病。方法 按1∶1配对设计及
流行病学调查方法，收集氟病区和非病区4类人群环境氟等6类指标。经多类判别
分析，建立4类人群的判别分析模型。环境及生物材料含氟量用氟电极法；生活条
件以测量+询问法；骨关节功能用测量法；生化酶学指标用试剂盒及凝胶电泳法；
其他指标用询问法。将4类人群资料经SAS和MDAS软件完成判别分析。结果 4类判
别函数总的差异有显著性。经已知样品分别回代，其判对符合率平均为85.78%
(83.33%～98.86%)。计算机产生随机新样品，新分类结果后验概率在86.39%～99.99%
范围。结论 除第三类可能因样本数太少判别效果稍差外，其他方程式有95%的把
握，可在地氟病区实际用于燃煤型地氟病早期判别、或作为药物疗效考核方法。
【关键词】 氟中毒 判别诊断
Exploration for An Early Discriminant Model of Non-skeletal Phase in Endemic Fluorosis
Exposed to Coal-Burning Li Anming*, Yan Benwu, Tan Xiaodong, et al. *Department
of Hygiene, Hubei Medical University, Wuhan 430071
【Abstract】 Objective To detect, diagnose and treat for endemic fluorosis earlier.
Methods Six kinds of indices, such as environmental fluoride level, were collected from the p
opulation in epidemic and non-epidemic areas of endemic fluorosis with a 1∶1 paired-match
design. A discriminant analysis model was established by multivariate analysis. Levels of fluo
ride in environment and biological materials were determined by fluoride electrode method.
Living condition of the subjects were measured and interviewed. Function of skeletons and
joints was measured. Biochemical and enzyme indices were measured with reagent kits and
gel electrophoresis. Other indices were measured by interview. All data collected were analyzed
by SAS and MDAS computer software. Results There was significant overall difference between
four kinds of discriminant functions, with an overall agreement of 85.78% (83.33% to 98.86%),
based on resubstitution with sampled data. Posterior probabilities for new classification of sampled
data automatically and randomly produced from a computer were 86.39% to 99.99%.
Conclusion The discriminant functions m[1] [2] 下一页
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