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江苏省肾综合征出血热监测与疫情预测指标研究 |
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祖荣强 吴扬生 朱凤才 刘光中
【摘要】 目的 探讨直接利用肾综合征出血热(HFRS)定点监测资料对全省疫情进行定性预测的意义，寻找敏感且易获得的预测指标。方法 兼顾不同地理状况，选点开展鼠密度、鼠带毒率、带毒鼠指数、健康人群抗体水平监测；对江苏省1986年以来12年的有关监测资料与人间疫情进行相关性分析。结果 春季室内褐家鼠(Rn)密度，混合鼠种及Rn带毒率、带毒鼠指数与春峰疫情有显著性相关关系；秋季野外混合鼠种及黑线姬鼠(Aa)密度、带毒鼠指数与秋冬峰疫情显著性相关；全年平均鼠密度、鼠带毒率、带毒鼠指数与全年疫情显著性相关；人群隐性感染率与人间疫情无明显相关关系。其中，春季室内混合鼠种及褐家鼠带毒鼠指数与春峰疫情间相关系数分别为0.8637、0.8295 (P＜0.001)；秋季野外混合鼠种、黑线姬鼠带毒鼠指数与秋冬峰疫情间相关系数分别为0.7089、0.7258 (P＜0.01)，与次年春峰疫情间相关系数分别为0.7118、0.7113 (P＜0.01)；全年平均带毒鼠指数与全年疫情间相关系数为0.9207 (P＜0.001)。结论 带毒鼠指数为定性预测出血热疫情的首选指标；在布夹数均衡性较好条件下，鼠密度可作为预测的辅助指标。
【关键词】 肾综合征出血热 鼠密度 鼠带毒率 带毒鼠指数 隐性感染率
Surveillance of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and studies on its predictive indices in Jiangsu Province
ZU Rongqiang,WU Yangsheng,ZHU Fengcai,et al.
Jiangsu Provincial Health and Anti-epidemic Station， Nanjing 210009
【Abstract】 Objective To study its predictive significance of the direct use of surveillance data of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) collected in Jiangsu province, and find an indicator of choice for qualitative prediction. Methods A correlation analysis between the HFRS incidence rate and surveillance data collected in the past 12 years since 1986 was applied. Results There was significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate and indoor density of rattus norvegicus (Rn), proportions of mixed species of rats and Rn with HFRS virus, indices of mixed species of rats and Rn with virus in the spring. Relationship between HFRS incidence rate and densities of outdoor mixed species of rats and Apodemus agrarius (Aa),and proportions of mixed species and Aa with virus was all significant in autumn and winter. And, there was significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate during the whole year and annual average density of rats,proportion of rats with virus, index of rats with virus.There was no significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate and human inapparent infection rate. The coefficien[1] [2] [3] 下一页
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